Tajikistan: Country prepares for parliamentary elections

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First of two parts

DUSHANBE, Tajikistan - Political analysts and members of the opposition are gearing up for the January 14 official start of campaigning for February’s parliamentary elections.

But most say they expect few electoral surprises with respect to who will win, how people will vote, or how the media will cover the run-up to the elections.

Voters will go to the polls February 28 to elect members of Tajikistan’s lower house of parliament, the Majlisi Namoyandagon, the upper house or Majilisi Milli, and local elected offices.

Independent experts suggest that the balance of power in the new parliament is unlikely to change, with most seats again going to the pro-presidential People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan (NDPT).

Voters also do not expect much difference in how voting will be conducted on election day. Dushanbe resident Sabagul Najmiddinova, 60, said she doesn’t plan to vote.

“In past elections, as the head of our apartment building, I was forced to vote for the tenants who did not go to the polling station”, Najmiddinova told Central Asia Online. “My husband voted on behalf of my son, who is with his family working in Russia. Why should we go vote if they are going to do your voting for you?”

Kobil Yatimov, who has been a migrant worker for more than 10 years, said he hasn’t voted once in parliamentary or presidential elections, but that his relatives voted for him. “... As far as I know, each voter should only vote for himself”, he said.

Tajikistan has some 3.4 million eligible voters, of which 533,000, or 15 percent, are migrant workers outside the country.

“In places with the largest concentrations of migrants in Russian cities and Kazakhstan, polling stations will be opened on election day”, said Mukhibullo Dodojanov, Chief of Staff of the Central Commission for Elections and National Referendums’ (TsIK). .

Dodojanov said members of local election commissions will be punished for permitting the kind of “family” voting Sabagul and Yatimov have experienced.

“According to the Code of Administrative Violations, which went into force April 1, violators will be fined, and this should promote transparent and democratic elections”, Dodojanov said.

But according to some, the penalties for permitting family voting are far outweighed by the incentives.

“The size of the fines that violators would be subject to under the law is many times less than the amount parliamentary candidates spend. Organisers and responsible persons have been given sufficient incentive so that they will not only not ensure compliance with and not enforce the law, but, on the contrary, will violate it in order to satisfy the corporate interests of certain circles”, says Social-Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) Deputy Chairman Shokirjon Khakimov. The SDPT is an opposition party.

The Social Democrat suggests that voter turnout will depend on how free the elections really are, and the extent to which the media — especially those under state control — impose self-censorship.

The editor of a Dushanbe newspaper, who asked not to be named, said media are forced into self-censorship. “On the eve before elections, all editorial offices increase their level of self-censorship, especially those in the electronic media, which can lose their licenses for broadcasting just one ‘wrong’ word”.

He recalled a recent incident at Imruz, an independent radio station.

“This radio station was taken off the air several times. Officially, it was said to be for technical reasons, but the reality was different. Once it was for a radio piece that the authorities found undesirable. The second time it was , for an editor whom the authorities found undesirable and who was forced to resign”, the editor said.

But one political analyst told Central Asia Online that self-censorship is not a big issue because “ardent” members of the opposition will not be allowed to register as candidates. Under Tajik law, all candidates must obtain 40,000 signatures, but opposition figures say only those candidates approved by the government are registered and end up on the ballot.