Pakistan’s peace prospects for 2010

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PESHAWAR, Pakistan -- Military and political analysts say Pakistan is moving into the most critical stage of its war against militancy, and hope that 2010 will herald a complete victory with “correct focus” and “right direction” after successes amid the death and destruction of 2009.

Several analysts said that 2010 will be a decisive year in terms of the war against militants in the tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan and the North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

The year might decide the fate of the war, but costs look to run deeper than last year and the January 1 car bomb attack at the volleyball grounds in the Lakki Marwat district, was a reminder of how bloody the New Year could be. The attack killed more than 100 and injured as many.

Pakistan saw the most violence in 2009 since late 2006 when the Taliban-linked militancy, backed by al-Qaeda, spilled beyond the boundaries of Waziristan.

The Federal Interior Ministry in Islamabad said 1,217 people were killed in 80 suicide attacks and bombings in 2009. That average of 101 deaths every month was up from 80 a month in 2008.

Civilian casualties stood at 863. Also, 137 police officers, 102 soldiers, 51 paramilitary Frontier Constabulary personnel, 28 Inter-Services Intelligence members and 12 Pakistan Rangers died.

Former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) security chief, Brigadier (ret.) Mehmood Shah believes the next four months will clarify the picture as far as winning the war against the militancy is concerned.

“I am pretty sure Pakistan will regain control of areas it lost to Taliban in tribal and other settled areas”, he told Central Asia Online. His certainty is based on reported successes in Swat and South Waziristan during the ongoing military offensives launched last year that almost dismantled the command and control structure of the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliated Swat Taliban, and regained control of the two important areas.

Swat Valley is 90 percent government-controlled now and military operations in South Waziristan pushed thousands of militants deep into the bordering North Waziristan, Kurram and Orakzai tribal areas.

Hailed as a “big achievement” was the death of the TTP chief, Baitullah Mehsud, in a missile attack August 5, 2009. Another attack took out senior jihadi commander Haji Umar, who was leading attacks on forces in Afghanistan.

But the country faces serious challenges in 2010 that should not be underestimated, according to Afrasiab Khattak, Peace Envoy for the NWFP government in Peshawar and former Chairman of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP). “The terrorists are again and again regrouping. The TTP creates another space after losing one. They are targeting urban and population and financial centres”, he said.

He recognizes the importance of political initiative alongside the military offensive. “I don’t think only a military solution will resolve the conflict,” he said, suggesting that Afghanistan in particular should head for “political reconciliation” to overcome the conflict the country has been facing ever since it was invaded by the then Soviet Union in December 1979.

A transition from military to civilian control in Swat and other tribal areas will be important, too. Security and development expert Khalid Aziz gives four months to accomplish this goal.

“If we do not hand over control to a reformed and a revamped civilian administration in Swat and South Waziristan, the military will come under pressure and its supply line will be threatened with the media demanding peace with militants,” Khalid Aziz, former chief secretary of the NWFP told Central Asian Online. “The political compact will be threatened. The NWFP will become poorer and the writ of the state will be weakened. Now is the time – the next four months - in which to win our war and hand over to a well managed civilian administration in Swat and Waziristan”.

Interviews with people affected by the militancy in Swat and the tribal areas indicate that the militant groups have lost considerable public support after the “brutal terror” they spread.

“We will never, ever be fooled by Islamic slogans of these elements. We suffered greatly because of the these people and will never look back at these elements if they appear next time differently but with same catchphrase of Shariah (Islamic law)”, Mehboob Jamali, 52, a farmer from Bedara village in the Matta tehsil of Swat, said about the Taliban. “They hurt our sentiments about religion”.

However, the firm resolve of the nation against terrorism may by clouded by political instability as tense relations between military chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani and President Asif Ali Zardari continues and ruling coalition partners wrangle issues.

“Yes. Political bickering in Islamabad is affecting the war against terrorism and is encouraging all non-state actors to settle the issue with bullets, not with ballots”, political commentator Fazal-ur-Rahim Marwat said.

Unflinching public support and political ownership of military offensives and quick transition from army to civilian control of previously Taliban-held areas will be the key in the war against the militancy, the analysts said.