Analysts see no improvement in security situation for Pakistan in 2010

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ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Terrorist attacks saw a dramatic increase in 2009, causing huge human and economic losses to a country fighting against insurgents in both tribal and settled areas.

But, despite the government’s continued efforts against militants and insurgents in parts of the country, security analysts are not optimistic about improvement in the security situation in 2010.

Pakistan security forces are engaged against militants in the country’s tribal belt after clearing the Swat valley of insurgents.

A recent report on the security situation by the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) detailed the human and economic losses Pakistan suffered in 2009. The report termed 2009 the worst year for the Pakistani public and security forces with more than 12,000 human casualties. Besides terrorist and operational attacks, the PIPS report also listed political instability, inter-tribal feuds and border clashes as major security problems.

“The bad thing in the government’s strategy is mixing of counter-insurgency with anti-terrorism”, said Muhammad Amir Rana, director of PIPS. Terrorists are adopting new strategies, but the government is conducting fire-fights with no clear objectives or national policy to handle the threat effectively.

Government representatives did not discuss the specific strategy, but Afrasiab Khattak, peace envoy for the NWFP government in Peshawar, acknowledged that there are serious challenges and we cannot underestimate them.

“Counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency need different approaches”, he said.

Insurgency and terrorism may be linked, but countering terrorism needs an effective policing system and coordination between the country premier intelligence agencies. Insurgency can be suppressed by use of force or through military operations, as was done in the Swat and Malakand divisions.

But, Rana added, “Unfortunately, presently there is no cooperation between Pakistan intelligence agencies and police”. A long-term political strategy for tackling terrorism and insurgency is lacking in Pakistan. Instead, the country is using short-term, half-hearted policies with no clear objectives.

“Instead of framing a national counter-terrorism policy, Pakistan is doing fire-fighting”, Rana said. Lack of coordination in different institutions compounds the problem.

“Many times police have arrested important terrorists, but in the absence of proper laws, they (terrorists) get released in court”, Rana said. “Anti-terrorism courts established in 1997 have, so far, decided only six cases of terrorism; of those, two have been punished and the rest are in appeals courts”.

However, spokesman of the Pakistan Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas disagreed with that assessment.

“We are over the hill”, Abbas said, citing the clearance of the Swat and Malakand divisions. He said security forces are also clearing the areas in South Waziristan and are moving to clear far-flung areas.

Unlike the past, Abbas said, now there are small pockets of militants in Bajaur and Mohmand tribal agencies, which will be soon be cleared.

“The year 2010 is one of consolidating stabilization of what the government forces have achieved in the year 2009 against insurgents and terrorists”, Abbas said.

Khalid Aziz, former chief secretary of the NWFP and now a security and development consultant, told Central Asian Online that a strong government is key to maintaining peace in the areas that have had problems with militants. Without a strong civil administration, he said, the military will come under pressure and the media will demand peace deals with the militants.

Zahid Hussian, a senior journalist and author of “Frontline Pakistan – A struggle with Militant Islam”, said he believes the security situation in Pakistan will worsen this year. “Pakistan’s situation is directly linked with Afghanistan,” Hussian said, adding that more violence lies ahead for Afghanistan.

Hussain said Pakistan has to adopt a different strategy to deal with militancy and terrorism. “Though military operations in Pakistan have stabilized Swat and might get some successes in tribal areas, terrorism will remain a problem to deal with”, Hussian said.